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\F2\CSTANFORD ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE LABORATORY
\CDEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE
\CSTANFORD UNIVERSITY
\CSTANFORD, CALIFORNIA 94305
\F0


						
	                                                August 6, 1974
							

Dr. Hans Mark
Ames Research Center
Moffet Field, Calif.

Dear Hans:

\J	Here  is  my  current  understanding  of our bet.  You win if
within three years there is a naval incident in which the U.S.  backs
down  because  of  superior Soviet naval strength.  The bet is $50 at
even odds, and Hugh Bryson will decide whether an incident meets  the
criterion.

	My disagreement with you concerns mainly the specific issue
of the bet.  I would not be surprised if the Soviets were to take
advantage of a weakness that presented itself, but the way the game
has been played since World War II seems to me to preclude the
particular kind of misbehavior you predicted.  I think the Soviets
would provoke an incident that would cause American rearmament
only if they had something very substantial to gain from it, and
I can't now envisage the right kind of situation.  This could
be a defect in my imagination.

	As I remarked, my concerns about the future of technology
are quite different.  I fear that the anti-technological movement
will harm the country by preventing solution of the energy and
similar problems.\.



							With best wishes,



							John McCarthy
							Director, Artificial Intelligence Laboratory
							Professor of Computer Science


cc. Prof. Arthur Bryson